Just before the holidays, I was asked to keynote an event sponsored by the German American Chamber of Commerce. This article is an updated version of that presentation. It is even more relevant today following CES 2025 and the news streaming out of Europe. The automotive industry, especially the European automotive industry, faces even greater challenges. These challenges are not from technology startups but from more formidable forces. China has become an international competitor, and its market is no longer an opportunity for incumbents. Vehicle sales, including sales of battery electric vehicles, are slowing, leading many companies to miss their financial targets and reconsider previously announced investments relating to electric vehicles. The regulatory environment is becoming more restrictive but also less reliable in terms of long-term goals and guidance for the industry. At the same time, Software-Defined Vehicles and AI require large capital investments at a time when the industry is cutting costs and continues to show an inability to deploy capital in the areas that will matter in the future. Labor is reacting to the automakers’ actions and introducing new work-life balance demands.
