The driverless future promised by next-generation mobility will be made possible by two innovations: on-demand mobility services, e.g., ride-hailing, last-mile delivery, and autonomous vehicles used for consumer transportation and logistics. An innovation, including technology innovations, and its adoption advance along a four-phase lifecycle. Today we can evaluate the performance of the two driverless mobility innovations using distinct lifecycles. The paper presents an analysis of the autonomous vehicle (AV) innovation lifecycle. It introduces four dimensions alone which to measure AV innovation performance over time. Finally, it presents five requirements that will need to be addressed before the use of autonomous vehicles can scale for consumer transportation and logistics.Continue reading
The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is starting later this week and will be followed by the Detroit Auto Show (DAS). Both shows will serve as venues for the automotive industry to showcase Autonomous Connected Electrified (ACE) vehicles and new Mobility Services. ACE vehicles combined with Mobility Services such as ridesharing, car sharing and multimodal transportation options will give rise to a new personal mobility model that combines car ownership with car access. These innovations and the emerging model are creating two challenges for the automotive industry.
Companies in the automotive value chain are faced with a challenging future. While reporting record quarterly sales, they are also witnessing two alarming trends. Because of problems such as pollution, climate change and loss of productivity due to long commute times, consumer attitudes towards car ownership and use are changing. In the medium and long term, i.e., the next 5-30 years, these changes have a high probability to negatively impact automakers, their suppliers and their dealers, along with insurance companies, finance companies, and many other industries that are part of the automotive value chain. In addition, there is a growing consumer interest in electric cars (to address the pollution and climate change problems) and in self-driving, or autonomous, cars (to address the productivity problem, as well as a slew of other issues such reduced accidents and mobility for the elderly and handicapped). The success of Tesla Motors, Zipcar and Uber, the growing consumer anticipation of Google’s self-driving cars entering broader service, as well as Apple’s anticipated entry in the car business are exerting additional pressure on the automotive value chain to change the way it innovates. In this blog I explore what the automotive industry has been doing to address the potential disruption, analyze the effects of these initial steps, and provide recommendations on what corporations could be doing better.
In the last two years I have spoken to many business, technology, and corporate venture executives about their companies’ innovation goals and the initiatives they establish to address these goals. Several of these leaders are involved in the automotive industry and through our conversations I have concluded that a) in the next 10 years we will create more innovations that will impact the automotive industry than we have created in the previous 100, b) these innovations will be embraced because of certain important problems that must be addressed and will couple technology with other forms of innovation, c) because of the disruptive innovations that were introduced to the market in the last 3-4 years, and the ones that will be introduced in the near future, particularly those relating to the electric-autonomous-connected car, the automotive industry is approaching a tipping point of disruption.
In this post I review the two value chains that have been built around the automobile, discuss the societal problems that must be addressed and how the technology and business model innovations being developed to address these problems are disrupting the automotive industry. I also present companies that are pioneering these innovations while offering fresh visions on personal transportation.
In 2001 Apple introduced iTunes based on the IP of a company it had acquired in 2000. By 2003, after the introduction of the iPod and of the iTunes Store, iTunes had become the de facto disruptive innovator of digital music. More recently Apple itself started being disrupted by Pandora and Spotify. Streaming music companies have been growing and taking market share away from iTunes because of their business model and technological innovations. For example, the data they collect about subscriber music libraries and listening habits can provide unique customer insights that can lead to better monetization of the service, as well as improved personalization of the service’s user experience. Apple’s internal efforts to develop a streaming music offering have been unsuccessful. In May, Apple paid $3B to acquire Beats, for its streaming music service this time in order to defend its turf and not be disrupted. Apple’s 2000 acquisition shows that disruptive innovation can be acquired in addition to being created. Even companies with strong innovation DNA, such as Apple, Google, Facebook, and 3M, frequently acquire innovation for a variety of reasons, as we will see later on. To access disruptive innovation corporations may acquire early stage startups as Apple did in 1999, or later stage private companies, as Google did more recently with the acquisition of Nest. In this post I try to make three points:
- Innovation can be acquired, as much as it can be created within a corporation.
- Lack of growth in large corporations, combined with the accelerating innovation pace, are causing corporations to increase their innovation-driven acquisitions, particularly of earlier stage companies.
- Corporations must first identify the goal driving each innovation-driven acquisition and utilize five important dimensions with their associated actions during the acquisition and subsequent integration process.